Russia doesn't have the power to take on the west. In my opinion, the current situation is nothing more than a negotiation trick on the part of Russia as leverage for their demands. Any prolonged war in Ukraine could foster the same kind of domestic backlash resulting from Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan in the late 1970s, because Russians don’t like losing their sons to ill-conceived military adventures any more than Americans do." "Putin’s current popularity within his nation is high by Western standards, but low compared with earlier in his tenure. The Russian economy depends heavily on exports of oil and natural gas that could be severely limited if punitive sanctions were imposed." "President Biden removed the threat of sanctions against the pipeline in May as a goodwill gesture to Moscow, but he would be forced to revisit that decision if an invasion of Ukraine took place. Newspapers still employ political cartoonists and humourists to skewer our enemies, but meme creators generally. That burden would persist indefinitely, imposing big costs on the Russian state for returns that are likely to be quite modest." The famously homphobic Putin surely would not invade Ukraine unless he were gay. "Assuming that Moscow does not envision genocidal extermination of non-Russians, it would then have to subsidize a restive developing nation that is recovering from the effects of war. Posture as he may, Putin acts strictly in self-interest, and the costs way outweigh the benefits. I personally don't think Russia will invade Ukraine.
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